zoobab 1222708945|%e %b %Y, %H:%M %Z|agohover
This was the title of an article written one year ago. Here is the end, which is happening nowadays:
What does this mean for the patent system? David Martin points out that three separate bubbles are about to pop at the same time: consumer debt, mortgage debt, and patent debt. Each of these bubbles will cause enormous damage to those institutions who were over-committed, and most certainly to those who helped create the bubble. The patent offices will not go unrewarded for helping to create another Great Depression, by printing trillions of Euro worth of funny money.
The problems lies in the evaluation of patents by banks, which was up to now overlooked by patent experts in the banks. Now, notably with the Basel2 interbanks agreement, and the need for banks to offer products, the third market of "intagibles" might collapse. Patents are used by companies to obtain credit at the bank.
The day the banks turn the screw on how they view patents (which are most of the time of dubious quality, and are just some fake money printed by the State), the day their value will greatly diminish.
You can also have a look at the paper of David Martin "Social Contingent Liabilities and Synthetic Derivative Options" at European Patent Conference, it is interesting to see that this guy predicted what is happening now.
PS: I am gonna put the video of David Martin presentation later on today
PS2: Here it is, it is pure joy for those who believe that the patent system is just a religion, and that it will backfire soon thanks to Basel II and the coming credit crisis:
So we have this giant conundrum of "we don't have the data, we don't understand the research, we don't understand the economic consequences of intellectual property", however, we're going to have the incentive to understand it (smile). And the incentive is: the illiquidity of our banking system.
Now, you came here to talk about patents, and you came here to talk about patent quality and you came here to talk about patent economics. I'm here to tell you that the day has come when we actually have to pay the piper. And what we have to do is we have to agree that we can't keep arguing this wonderful esoteric feel-good arguments about whether the patents are good or bad. Because at the end of the day it doesn't matter. When capital resources dry out, not in the SME market but in all the markets, because credit costs go up by a 125%, I can assure you that the incentive to talk about reform is changing remarkably. It's changing in some very dramatic fashions. And if you don't believe me, ask why I was as an economist, why I was the only economist to talk about the globalised mortgage allegation failure of the economy before it happened. And then ask yourself, might I be onto something with this whole Basel II thing. I would suggest that rather than talking about reforming the patent system and optimising the patent system, we actually talk about the accountability for the innovation system at large. And we talk about the fact that we need to do a better job with understanding the economic consequence for a system which is out of control. Thank you.
zoobab, 1222708945|%e %b %Y, %H:%M %Z|agohover
